When: October 13, 2015
Time: 6:30 dinner and socializing, 7:00 Meeting
Where: NuSil Technology LLC, 1050 Cindy Lane, Carpinteria, CA
Cost: $15 (includes a sandwiches, salad and drinks)
An Analysis of Determining Residual (Useful) Life – RULfrom Fundamentals of Asset Management Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
The purpose of this presentation is to take operational EPA data, and using a variety of statistical techniques construct a “condition-based approach” to determine the effective remaining (or residual) usable life (RUL) for a critical asset… given some threshold of measurable deterioration in performance has occurred. While the overall analysis closely follows the standard “P-F Curve” methodology, this paper addresses in detail the specifics of polynomial “reversion of series” regression selection, analysis and “fitness for use” of the regression residuals, assess the effect of variation in the prediction model, and include longitudinal and latitudinal analytic modeling (consistent with EPA analysis) for a probabilistic determination of the RUL.
The main point of the presentation is to highlight the dangers of “rushing too soon” to using only mean measures, neglecting to account for the accumulation of variation in these measures, when determining RUL.
The data has been extracted and rescaled from EPA: Fundamentals of Asset Management, “Step 3, Determining Residual Life,” slide 23.
Kitt C. Carlton-Wippern, Ph.D. holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics, Ph.D. in Computer Science/Numerical Analysis, is a former adjunct lecturer of engineering mathematics at the University of Florida in Gainesville, former Assistant Professor of Space Sciences at the University of Colorado in Colorado Springs, past member of the Computer Science Advisory Board at Colorado Technical University, was senior research analyst at HQ Air Force Space Command in Colorado Springs, an invited guest lecturer to the MIT / Charles Stark Draper Lab (1997) while serving as a principal research scientist with DOE Oak Ridge National Lab (investigating satellite collision phenomenology), and is a retired general systems engineer at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Port Hueneme Division.
He has numerous publications in a variety of technical journals, including the Journal of the Institute of Navigation (Washington D.C.), The Journal of the Royal Institute of Navigation (London), Journal of Space Power; is a recognized subject matter expert (in applied probability and stochastic processes theory, systems failure prediction technology) for the Naval Sea Systems Command; reviewer for the Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, and has been an invited presenter at numerous AIAA/AAS conferences and ASNE symposia.
A former US Air Force officer assigned to space satellite and missile tracking operations at NORAD/Space Command in Colorado Springs, CO, he holds a civil aeronautical rating, and is a graduate of the Air Command and Staff College, the Air War College, and the National Defense University (Industrial College – Eisenhower School, Management Program). He holds American Society for Quality certification as a Six Sigma Black Belt, was a NAVSEA Lean Six Sigma process improvement instructor, has been a data coach and “big data” analyst for a number of national labs (including NASA Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena) as well as for the Naval Surface Warfare Centers and Air Force Philips Lab in Albuquerque.
Established in 1963, the Channel Cities section 0709 includes over 170 members from aerospace, manufacturing, healthcare, and service industries.